Week 11 DFS Football Breakdown
Let’s dive into Week 11 of DFS football! This week, we’re tackling an exciting lineup of games and strategies. With a couple of free daily fantasy contests available—check the description for links—we’re ready to discuss last week’s performance and build lineups for the upcoming action. Let’s start by reflecting on Week 10 and then analyze the Week 11 matchups.
Recap of Week 10
Scores were remarkably low last week, with many players underperforming compared to their projections. It served as a reminder to always prepare for volatility in DFS. Whether it was unexpected game scripts or defenses stepping up, Week 10 left many scratching their heads.
Week 11 Game Review
With four teams on bye (Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers), we have fewer games to evaluate. Additionally, the Vegas odds reveal no games with an over/under (O/U) greater than 50 this week. Here’s how the games break down:
- 1 game below 40
- 6 games between 40 and 45
- 5 games between 45 and 48
Let’s analyze the matchups in descending order of O/U predictions, starting with the highest total.
BAL (7-3) @ PIT (6-2) | Favorite: BAL -3.0 | O/U: 48.0
This divisional clash promises high stakes. George Pickens has been consistent, especially with Kenny Pickett under center. On the Ravens’ side, Lamar Jackson looks primed for a solid game, especially with the Steelers’ defense occasionally vulnerable. While Derrick Henry has been a popular choice, fading him in this matchup might be strategic given the Ravens’ road prowess.
CIN (4-6) @ LAC (6-3) | Favorite: LAC -1.5 | O/U: 48.0 (Sunday Night)
The Chargers are favored here, thanks to their balanced offense and improving defense. Justin Herbert should do enough to outlast the Bengals, making him a viable DFS option. For CIN, Ja’Marr Chase remains a high-upside play, but the overall team struggles dampen enthusiasm.
SEA (4-5) @ SF (5-4) | Favorite: SF -6.5 | O/U: 47.5
San Francisco remains the favorite, with Christian McCaffrey leading the way. However, his high DFS price limits value. The Seahawks’ offensive inconsistencies make them tough to trust, especially against the Niners’ strong defense.
JAX (2-8) @ DET (8-1) | Favorite: DET -14.0 | O/U: 47.5
Detroit is projected to dominate, with a 14-point spread suggesting over 30 points for the Lions. DFS managers might consider stacking Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams, given the Jaguars’ porous defense. It’s also worth noting that Goff could rebound after a five-interception game.
KC (9-0) @ BUF (8-2) | Favorite: BUF -2.0 | O/U: 46.5
This showdown for potential home-field advantage pits two of the league’s best teams against each other. Surprisingly, the undefeated Chiefs are underdogs. While this game will be thrilling to watch, the high DFS prices of key players like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen might not deliver optimal value.
CLE (2-7) @ NO (3-7) | Favorite: NO -1.0 | O/U: 44.5
The Saints’ defense is in play at home, but Cedric Tillman is an intriguing cheap option for DFS lineups. This game lacks star power, making it better suited for contrarian plays.
LV (2-7) @ MIA (3-6) | Favorite: MIA -7.0 | O/U: 44.0
Miami’s offense looks poised for a big day, and stacking Dolphins players like Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane could pay off. The Raiders’ defense has struggled against the run, making Achane a near-essential play.
Other Games to Consider
- ATL @ DEN: Good defenses make this game less appealing for DFS.
- IND @ NYJ: Interesting RB options, with Breece Hall leading the pack.
- LA @ NE: Cooper Kupp could provide sneaky value against a vulnerable Patriots secondary.
- GB @ CHI: A likely low-scoring affair, with defenses dominating.
- MIN @ TEN: Both defenses are in play, but offensive upside is limited.
Top Targets (DraftKings)
- QB: Jared Goff ($6,300)
- RB: De’Von Achane ($6,000)
- WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000)
- TE: Dalton Schultz ($4,800)
- DST: Detroit Lions ($3,200)
Top Targets (FanDuel)
- QB: Tua Tagovailoa ($8,000)
- RB: De’Von Achane ($7,800)
- WR: Jaylen Waddle ($7,200)
- TE: Trey McBride ($5,600)
- DST: Miami Dolphins ($4,300)
Final Thoughts
Thanks for tuning in to our Week 11 DFS breakdown! We hope these insights spark great ideas as you prepare your lineups.
